Report: Housing Market 61% 'Back to Normal'

The housing market made it to 61 percent “back to normal” in May, according to the latest Housing Barometer from Trulia.

May’s percentage is the first time the recovery has passed 60 percent since the crash. April’s barometer was 54 percent. A year ago, the barometer was at only 35 percent.

The monthly report measures three key housing market indicators—construction starts, existing-home sales, and the delinquency-plus-foreclosure rate—to track how quickly the market is recovering to its normal, pre-bubble state.

All three metrics improved in May, with starts and sales rising and the delinquency/foreclosure rate falling.

According to the May report from the Census Bureau, starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 914,000, up 7 percent from April but still below February and March. On the sales side, the National Association of Realtors reported a 4 percent increase in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.18 million.

Overall, starts are about 43 percent back to their normal level of 1.5 million, while sales are 82 percent back to normal.

Meanwhile, the share of mortgages in delinquency or foreclosure dropped to 9.13 percent in May. The combined rate is 57 percent back to normal.

“The recovery has reached full-fledged teenager status, with awkward, sudden growth spurts and parents—the Fed—who now threaten to take away its allowance by winding down measures that pushed mortgage rates down to historic lows,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia. “Before long, the recovery should make it into adulthood, but it will face some grown-up challenges in the next couple of years:

1. still-tight mortgage credit for many borrowers,
2. a slow jobs recovery for young adults, and
3. unaffordable housing in large coastal markets.”


Source: DS News

Survey: Agents Expect Prices to Rise, but in Smaller Increments

In concurrence with many industry analysts, real estate agents expect price gains to mellow in the near future, according to survey results released by Redfin, a Seattle-based national brokerage.

Agents also harbor a positive outlook for sellers and a somewhat less positive outlook for buyers in the current market, according to Redfin’s Real-Time Agent Survey of 380 real estate agents.

Eighty-six percent of agents believe prices will rise over the next few months. The same percentage of agents say now is a good time to sell a home. Both of these categories have increased from the first quarter of the year to the second.

However, while a majority of agents expect price gains, a minority expect prices to “rise a lot.” The percent of agents who anticipate prices rising “a lot” in coming months fell from 44 percent in the first quarter to just 16 percent in the second quarter, according to Redfin’s survey.

Factors leading agents to view the current market as a seller’s market include low inventory and an observance of multiple offers on the same homes. Ninety-three percent of agents cited these buyer challenges in Redfin’s survey. While still a significant majority, this is down three percentage points from the first quarter.

On the other hand, the most commonly-cited obstacle for sellers—cited by 40 percent of survey respondents—is low appraisals.

In the current environment, a decreasing percentage of agents are advising buyers to “use aggressive strategies such as waiving contingencies and expanding their budget when facing a bidding war.” About 11 percent of agents admitted to using these strategies, as opposed to 15 percent in the previous quarter.

Source: DS News

Forecast Points to Steady Price Growth Led by California

When it comes to price appreciation, California markets are expected to continue leading growth over the next year, while certain markets concentrated in the Northeast should see a decline in home values, according to Veros Real Estate Solutions' most recent forecast ending June 1, 2014. The company's forecast covers 969 counties, 324 metro areas, and 13,502 zip codes.

 Source: DS News

Pending Sales at Strongest Pace Since 2006

Pending home sales rose in May to the highest level since late 2006, implying a possible spark as mortgage interest rates began to rise, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 6.7 percent to 112.3 in May from a downwardly revised 105.2 in April, and is 12.1 percent above May 2012 when it was 100.2. Contract activity is at its strongest pace since December 2006, when it reached 112.8. Also, pending sales have been above year-ago levels for the past 25 months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there may be a fence-jumping effect. “Even with limited choices, it appears some of the rise in contract signings could be from buyers wanting to take advantage of current affordability conditions before mortgage interest rates move higher,” he said. “This implies a continuation of double-digit price increases from a year earlier, with a strong push from pent-up demand.”

Regionally, the index went unchaged in the Northeast, but is 14.3 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest, it jumped 10.2 percent to 115.5 in May and is 22.2 percent higher than May 2012. Pending home sales in the South rose 2.8 percent and 16 percent in the West.

Source: NAR

Wells Fargo, Citigroup Halt Foreclosure Sales

Wells Fargo and Citigroup have temporarily halted foreclosure sales in several states, taking precautions after a federal regulator released new guidance on minimum standards for foreclosure sales.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) recently released the new standards. The OCC’s directive mostly consists of 13 questions banks need to ask themselves before selling a home in foreclosure, such as whether the borrower is protected from foreclosure by bankruptcy or if the borrower is in an active loan modification plan.

JPMorgan had also mostly stopped its foreclosure sales after the OCC’s standards were released, but has since resumed sales.

Wells Fargo, the nation’s largest mortgage originator, has seen a dramatic drop in foreclosure sales while significantly decreasing the number of sales it’s processing. For example, foreclosure sales by Wells Fargo in California, Nevada, Arizona, Oregon, and Washington plummeted from 349 a day in April to less than 10 a day, according to Foreclosure Radar, a real estate monitoring firm based in California.

"Wells Fargo has temporarily postponed certain foreclosure sales while we study the revised guidance from the OCC," a Wells Fargo spokeswoman confirmed for American Banker. Citibank officials also confirmed the reason behind their halt in sales was to carefully review the new guidance.

"The OCC did not direct a slowdown or pausing," says OCC spokesman Bryan Hubbard. "However, if servicers are not certain they are meeting these standards, pausing foreclosures is a responsible and productive step."

Source: “Wells, Citi Halt Most Foreclosure Sales as OCC Ratchets Up Scrutiny,” American Banker (May 17, 2013)

We're Forever Seeing Bubbles

The recent jump in home prices (near record month-over-month and year-over-year increases reported for May by the National Association of Realtors) has led to speculation that the rapid surge in home prices could be the sign of a new housing bubble similar to the one that led to the Great Recession. Is it? The not-so-short answer is, not yet.

Through May the median price of an existing single-family home has risen by double-digits for seven of the last eight months (and in the eighth, the year-over-year increase was 9.4 percent). For comparison’s sake, note that in the run-up to the collapse in 2006, the median price of an existing single-family home rose by double-digits year-over-year for 11 straight months.

An increase in prices itself does not signal a bubble. An unsustainable increase, not supported by other data, however, would. In the run-up to the 2006 collapse, the higher prices—which had been trending up for four years—led to a sharp uptick in construction wholly unsupported by demographics.

Despite the fact we still theoretically have more potential sellers than buyers, which should drive prices down, the inventory of homes listed for sale has remained low. That low inventory, combined with low interest rates keeping affordability high, has driven prices up.

Many analysts contend the current prices are justified by low rates, which keep home affordable even as prices rise. This would suggest that as rates rise, prices will move in the opposite direction, a replay of the post-2006 economy. That’s not though what history tells us. If prices fall in response to higher rates, it would mean market behavior has changed, a phenomenon for which we may not be prepared.

For more...see We're-forever-seeing-bubbles-2013-06-21

Trulia: Asking Prices Accelerate in Least Affordable Housing Markets

Asking prices are rising at an especially fast pace in the least affordable housing markets, according to Trulia. 

Nationally, asking prices increased 9.5 percent year-over-year in May, but in the ten least affordable metros, asking prices spiked 16.3 percent during the same time period.

Trulia also found out of the 100 largest metros, 98 saw asking prices increase over the last year.
Among the least affordable markets, seven were in California. 

Honolulu was found to be the least affordable metro, where 74 percent of monthly household income is used to pay a mortgage. In San Francisco, households spend 55 percent of their monthly wages on their mortgage. 

In the 10 least affordable markets, households spent at least a third of their income towards their mortgage. 

The calculation assumed a 3.8 percent interest rate on a home that is 1800 square feet. 

Jed Kolko, Trulia’s chief economist, gave two reasons for why the gap in affordability matters.

For one, it leads to a migration out of less affordable markets.

“[M]ore people in expensive markets like California will look to relocate to cheaper markets like Texas when the time comes to buy,” he said.

For the full article, see trulia-asking-prices-accelerate-in-least-affordable-housing-markets-2013-06-07

Buying vs Renting in California 2013

Housing Pushes Economy’s Recovery

Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group has announced that the strengthening of the housing market is pushing the economy forward but the country’s growth has yet to reach its full potential. 

While we are currently experiencing a prolonged period of steady economic growth, it is expected that growth will remain below 2.0 percent for the first half of the year, with gradual strengthening in the second half of 2013 and into 2014.

The ongoing recovery in housing has contributed greatly to an economy moving in a positive direction, thanks to home prices, home sales, and homebuilding activity showing signs of long-term improvement. In fact, growth is expected to surpass 2.5 percent in 2014 due to improved conditions in the housing market.

For more info see fanniemae news/2013/

NEARLY 1 MILLION HOUSES FLOAT BACK INTO POSITIVE EQUITY

Approximately 850,000 more residential properties returned to a state of positive equity during the first quarter of 2013, according to the CoreLogic first quarter home equity report.

The recovery is still far below peak home price levels, but tight supplies in many areas coupled with continued demand for single family homes should help close the gap.

Rising home values in many areas including many areas within San Bernadino, Riverside and Los Angeles counties are responsible for causing the negative equity burden to recede.

For the full article visit 1-million-houses-float-back-positive-equity

5 Federal Programs Homeowners Should Review for 2013

As homeowners receive their annual property assessments & taxable valuations in the mail, many will see the continued drop in the value of their home. Despite recent reports of declining “underwater” homeowners in the fourth quarter of 2012, there are still many homeowners looking for help.

Property values in many California markets to include, Chino, Chino Hills, Diamond Bar and surrounding areas are starting to see property values creeping up; but, many homeowners are still underwater and owe more than their home is worth.

Information & education is imperative on housing programs that are available to homeowners. Qualifying for one of these programs can mean the difference between losing or staying in their home.

The following is a list federal programs compiled by Greenpath Debt Solutions.

1. HAMP (Home Affordable Modification Program) - Tier 1 & Tier 2
2. HAFA (Home Affordable Foreclosure Altrnatives) - Updates
3. Independent Foreclosure Review Alternative Settlement
4. Fannie Mae Refinancing Incentive
5. Hardest Hit Funds - See http://www.ncsha.org/housing-help

To see the complete article go to http://goo.gl/E0vlR

10 Hottest Rental Markets

Realtor.com® recently released a list of the top rental markets in the country, based on the most-searched markets at its site the last month. Among the top 10 markets:

1. Las Vegas
Median rent: $1,100

2. Austin, Texas
Median rent: $1,450

3. Charlotte, N.C.
Median rent: $1,195

4. San Antonio, Texas
Median rent: $1,100

5. Orlando, Fla.
Median rent: $1,195

6. Raleigh, N.C.
Median rent: $1,095

7. Chicago
Median rent: $1,550

8. Los Angeles
Median rent: $2,650

9. Atlanta
Median rent: $1,353

10. Houston
Median rent: $1,355

Source: “The Top 10 U.S. Rental Markets,” realtor.com® (June 5, 2013)

More Home Owners Regain Long-Lost Equity

Rising home prices are helping to propel more home owners back into positive equity. About 850,000 residential properties returned to positive equity during the first quarter of 2013, according to new data released by CoreLogic. That brings the total to 1.7 million borrowers who have regained positive equity in the past year.

In total, 39 million residential properties now have positive equity.

"The negative equity burden continues to recede across the country thanks largely to rising home prices," says Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

By the end of the first quarter, 19.8 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage -- or 19.7 million -- still had negative equity. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2012, 10.5 million or 21.7 percent of residential properties were underwater.

The states with the highest percentage of negative equity properties are:

• Nevada: 45.4% of the properties there are still underwater
• Florida: 38.1% underwater
• Michigan: 32% underwater

Source: “CoreLogic: Nearly 1 million houses float back into positive equity,” HousingWire (June 12, 2013)

LIST OF IMPROVING HOUSING MARKETS RISES IN JUNE

The number of U.S. housing markets on the mend rose by five to a total of 263 in June, according to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index. The list includes entrants from 49 states and the District of Columbia. 

The Index identifies metropolitan areas that have shown improvement from their respective troughs in housing permits, employment, and house prices for at least six consecutive months. Nearly 30 (29) new markets were added to the list while 24 others were dropped from it this month. New entrants included such many geographically diverse metros; however, Salinas was the only market area added from California.

“This is the fifth consecutive month in which the IMI has designated more than 70 percent of U.S. metros as improving,” observed NAHB Chairman Rick Judson. “While that’s a good sign that the housing recovery is on solid footing, we know that various challenges are slowing its progress – including continuing issues with credit availability for builders and buyers, as well as appraisals that aren’t keeping up with the rising cost of construction.”

ASKING PRICES UP IN LEAST-AFFORDABLE HOUSING MARKETS

Asking prices continue to increase steadily nationwide in May, rising in 98 of the largest 100 metros, according to Trulia’s Price Monitor. Nationally, prices are up 9.5 percent year-over-year. Seasonally adjusted, prices increased 4 percent quarter-over-quarter and 1.1 percent month-over-month.

Eight out of the 10 least affordable markets, with seven in California, are all showing double digit increases in asking prices, making home affordability even tougher for would-be buyers. Orange County, Oakland, and San Jose all had price increases of more than 20 percent, making these already expensive markets even less affordable. Prices are up 16.3 percent, on average, in these 10 least affordable housing markets.

RACIAL, ETHNIC MINORITIES FACE HOUSING DISCRIMINATION

Blatant acts of housing discrimination faced by minority home-seekers continue to decline in the U.S., yet more subtle forms of housing denial stubbornly persist, according to a new study released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Urban Institute. The study, Housing Discrimination Against Racial and Ethnic Minorities 2012, finds African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asians learn about fewer housing options than equally qualified whites.

According to the study, real estate agents and rental housing providers recommend and show fewer available homes and apartments to minority families, thereby increasing their costs and restricting their housing options. The study concludes this is a national, not a regional, phenomenon.

Key findings of the report include:

• African American renters who contact real estate agents about recently advertised housing units learn about 11 percent fewer available units and are shown roughly 4 percent fewer units.
• Asian renters learn about 10 percent fewer available units and are shown nearly 7 percent fewer units. 
• Hispanic renters learn about 12 percent fewer available homes and are shown nearly 19 percent fewer units.
• African American home buyers who contact real estate agents about recently advertised homes for sale learn about 17 percent fewer available homes and are shown about 18 percent fewer units.
• Asian home buyers learn about 15 percent fewer available homes and are shown nearly 19 percent fewer units.

The difference in treatment for Hispanic home buyers and Hispanic renters is not statistically significant.

Interest Rates Makes A Sharp Turn Upward

Interest rates were around the 3.5% mark at the beginning of this year; and now it is approximately 4%. Is it just fluctuating or is it a trend. It appears many economists are seeing a trend.

The increase in rates translates to approximately $1000/year increase in payments on a $250,000 loan. What this means for the homeowner is that it may be time to think about locking in your interest rates.

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If you are looking to buy or sell your home in Chino Hills, Diamond Bar, Corona and surrounding communities, call Howard Curry at 714-323-1233 your Southern California premiere realtor at Century 21 Beachside Fine Home & Estates.