The median price last month was $415,000, down from $417,500 in July but still up 20.2 percent from year-ago levels.
Sales also were lower, down 9.5 percent from July to 4,099 transactions, a not uncommon seasonal dip. The total was up 3 percent from August 2012.
DataQuick President John Walsh said the trends, generally consistent across the six-county Southern California region, reflect fewer all-cash and investor buyers, still-tight inventory and rising mortgage rates.
"There's something for everyone in today's housing data," Walsh said in a statement. "Sellers have seen an amazing price jump from just a year ago, allowing many to finally sell at a profit."
Freddie Mac's weekly primary mortgage market survey, also released Thursday, showed the 30-year, fixed-rate loan unchanged at 4.57 percent from last week, not counting origination fees. The most recent low was 3.4 percent in April.
"As we head into fall and winter, a slower time of year," Walsh said, "we'll probably see year-over-year price gains continue to taper."
Michael Lea, a real estate professor at San Diego State University, said he was not surprised by the price dip but was "a little puzzled" that sales are not rising as fast as they should at this point in the economic cycle.
"I would have thought sales would be picking up," he said.
After all, Lea noted, many homeowners have left the underwater-mortgage years, when their homes were worth less than their mortgages. They also are aging and want to move to a smaller home or are growing their families and need bigger homes.
"I would expect more of those sales to be going on," he said.
The explanation may be that would-be sellers are sitting on their homes expecting prices, which rose 20.2 percent over the last year to repeat that feat in the next year. If they did, the median price for all homes in August 2014 would stand at $499,000, not too far from the all time peak of $517,500 in November 2005.
"I don't expect that" to happen, Lea said.
Another roadblock may have to do with mortgage financing. Lea said the tighter lending rules mean buyers must accumulate 10 to 20 percent in a down payment and carry a FICO score of 720 -- both factors that are much higher than a decade ago.
"A lot of homeowners still can't qualify for a new home, particularly if they want to make a lateral move or trade up," he said.
All things considered, he said, if your finances are sound and your needs so dictate, it's better to buy now.
"If you're just the average guy that wants to buy a house," he said, "I've been telling people this is a good time because interest rates aren't going to be going down."
In DataQuick's August report, key measurements pointed to further stabilization of the housing market:
- Absentee buying stood at 26.9 percent, unchanged from July but down from the high of 31.5 percent in March. Still, it was at 16.3 percent in August 2003 and thus shows that many would-be owner-occupants still are on the sidelines.
- All-cash buying, a measurement of investor interest, stood at 27.6 percent, down from 28.2 percent in July. That's also improvement from the high of 36.5 percent in February; it was 8.2 percent 10 years ago. Investors often squeeze out buyers needing mortgages by outbidding them. The fewer investors there are, the more chances families have to buy the home of their dreams.
- Foreclosure sales -- homes sold after foreclosure in the last 12 months -- fell to 4.5 percent from July's 5.4 percent and the all-time high of 55 percent in January 2009. During the pre-recession boom, foreclosure sales ran less than 1 percent. Still, the falling rate indicates a continuing decline in the distressed housing market -- and a stabilization of prices in neighborhoods in general.
- Short-sales -- another measurement of distress in homes sold for less than their outstanding mortgage -- represented 14 percent of sales in August. That's down from 14.4 percent in July and the record 31.2 percent set in January 2012. That means more sellers are no longer under water on their mortgages and can count on positive equity when they sell.
Separately, the Greater San Diego Association of Realtors reported that as of Thursday, the number of active listing in the county stood at 6,838 , up from 6,251 in August and 5,935 in August 2012.
However, listings regularly exceeded 10,000 per month from the spring of 2010 through November 2011.
Looking at Southern California counties, Los Angeles saw the highest year-over-year price increase, up 28.1 percent, to $429,000 in August. Riverside had the highest sales increase over the same period, up 6.3 percent to 3,740 transactions.
The overall six-county median was $385,000, up 24.6 percent from August 2012, and the sales total of 23,057 transactions up was up 2.8 percent.
Source: utsandiego.com/news, 12 September 2013
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